Offender Recidivism Figures

2012 Alaska:

A recent report by the Alaska Judicial Council (AJC) examined for the first time recidivism among both felony and misdemeanor offenders in the state. An earlier report in 2007 was the first general study of recidivism and focused on felons. In this 2011 study, the AJC analyzed records for felons and misdemeanants who returned to the community in 2008 and 2009. Because there were two years of data for the offenders released in 2008, the report highlights the analysis of that 2008 sample—2,675 felons and 8,815 misdemeanants. (The report does include data for the 2009 sample.) This article focuses on the data for offenders released in 2008.

In Criminal Recidivism in Alaska, 2008–2009, the researchers looked at three measures of recidivism:

--Rearrests—Department of Public Safety ASPIN data
--Reconvictions—Department of Public Safety ASPIN data
--Remands to incarceration, including remands for new arrests, and for probation and parole violations—Department of Corrections OTIS and AVOMS data.

There is some overlap in the measures, but each reflects an offender’s contact with the justice system which impacts justice resources. In the report and in this article, “recidivism” is used as an umbrella term referring to all measures of recidivism. When a specific percentage for recidivism is given, the measure—remand, rearrest, or reconviction—is identified.

The report also looked at offender characteristics and the location of the court where the case was originally filed; this may or may not have been the same as the offense location. The court locations were designated as Anchorage, Fairbanks, Southeast, Mat-Su, Kenai, and Rural.

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Felons

Within two years of return to their community:

-- 30% of felons were convicted of new offenses.
--2% of Class B felons and 3% of Class C felons were convicted of a more serious crime than their original underlying offense.
--No Class A felons were convicted of a more serious crime. (An unclassified felony is the most serious category and an unclassified felon could, therefore, not commit a more serious offense.)
--29% of individuals convicted of a violent offense, 34% convicted of a property offense, and 34% convicted of “other” offenses were reconvicted of the same category of offense.
--15% of drug offenders were reconvicted of a drug offense. (These offenders were more likely to be convicted of a driving or property offense than another drug offense.)
--2% of sex offenders were reconvicted of another sex offense.

..Source.. by Justice Center, University of Alaska Anchorage

Some TDCJ treatment programs increase recidivism

April 2015:

A friend forwarded me a copy of this recidivism analysis from Texas Department of Criminal Justice prison rehabilitation programs, lamenting that "some of the TDCJ rehabilitation programs demonstrably make people worse."

Which ones? Four of nine programs showed participants' recidivism increased after two years in the free world, though after three years only two programs - specifically the Sex Offender Treatment Program and the Pre-Release Substance Abuse Program, the latter of which has consistently resulted in increased recidivism since the agency began studying it - displayed higher recidivism rates.

The two programs with worse outcomes after two years that came out slightly better after three were the Sex Offender Education Program and the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative.

The SAFP program is the TDCJ rehab program with the best results and was the only one to make a double-digit difference. ..Source.. by Grits for Breakfast

Nebraska Sex Offender Registry Study

July 2013 Nebraska:

Excerpt:
Sex offense recidivism. In comparing the old risk - based system of classification to the new offense-based system of classification, the former risk-based system resulted in less overall recidivism.

Specifically, the pre-LB 285 classification system resulted in a 2-year recidivism rate of 1.7% and a 1-year recidivism rate of 0.6%. In comparison, the post-LB 285 classification system resulted in a 2-year recidivism rate of 2.6% and a 1-year recidivism rate of 1.7%. We also examined the effectiveness of each classification system in identifying offenders at the highest risk to reoffend. In general, the former system that utilized a psychological risk assessment tool consistently distinguished offenders who were at a high, medium, and low risk to reoffend.

In comparison, the AWA system was very effective in distinguishing those at a high risk to reoffend from medium and low risk offenders. However, the AWA classification system consistently failed to distinguish offenders 3 at medium risk to recidivate from those at low risk to recidivate. Our findings suggest that, as an overall tool for identifying anuanced risk to reoffend, the old risk-based system appears more effective. However, if the goal is simply to distinguish the highest risk offenders from everyone else, the Adam Walsh Act Tier system appears most effective.

One caveat, however, is that this latter finding is in sharp contrast to published research on sex offenders in other states (Zgoba et al. 2012).

For the purpose of this study, “recidivism” is defined as a criminal conviction for a new sex offense that requires the offender to register with the Nebraska Sex Offender Registry. A list of crimes that require a person to register may be found in the FAQ section of the Nebraska Sex Offender Registry website. ..Source.. Prepared by: Consortium for Crime and Justice Research, University of Nebraska - Omaha, Ryan Spohn, PhD., Director

Rhode Island: Sex Offender Recidivism Rates

January 2013 Rhode Island:

The Rhode Island DOC has this current study: 2009 Recidivism Study: Two Year Follow Up (Value added link)

Summary of Findings

-Of the 3,699 offenders released in 2009 from RIDOC, 31% returned under sentence within 1 year of release. By 24 months post-release, 42% had returned under sentence. This constitutes
a 4% decrease in 2-year post release rates from the 2004 cohort.

-Offenders who were released from Home Confinement had lower recidivism rates than those released from secure facilties. This was true for the 2004 cohort as well.

-Forty-one percent (41%) of prison offenders and 43% of jail offenders recidivated within 2 years of release.

-For pretrial re-admissions, 1 in 2 offenders returned as awaiting trail detainees within 24 months post release for a two year recidivism rate of 50%. This is an 8% decline for two year rates from the 2004 cohort.

-Only 4% of pretrial 2-year recidivists were female. This is a significant decrease from the 2004 cohort where 12% of awaiting trial recidivists were female.

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eAdvocate notes: Since they do not report a SAME-CRIME sex offender recidivism rate, we were able -using facts from the study- to calculate a GENERAL RECIDIVISM rate for sex offenders, and it comes out to be 14.5%. Here is how we did that:

At the link you will find a "recidivism study" for all types of offenses.
Open it and do a PAGE-SEARCH for "sex," BINGO after 2-years sex offenders had a 27% recidivism rate (pg-2).

OK, but what does that mean? What is their definition of recidivism? (pg-1)"Someone who was released from RI-DOC and returned within 2-years." Doesn't say "returned for the same crime type" so it is a general recidivism rate.

Now we need to know if they include "technical violations" in their rates. They do not use the phrase "technical violations [tried a pg-search] but instead see pg-2 [left column] "1/2 were re-sentenced for a new crime, and 31%+15%=47% were parole/probation violators."

Next, pg-2 also says "Of the 103 SOs released during 2009, 27% (28 of 103) recidivated within 2-years." But 47% of the 28 were for "parole violations" [not new crimes] = 13, so 15 were for new crimes, or 14.5% recidivism. However, thats for ANY kind of crime, a general recidivism rate, not just sex offenses.

Finally, 14.5% for any kind of crime, is the best we have for this state, and we should note it that way.

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