WOW, what an amazing difference from their 2010 figures.
It is true a picture is worth a thousand words. I had to create a new category in blog, lowest of all.
..Source..
Showing posts with label Recidivism CA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Recidivism CA. Show all posts
California release new re-offense numbers
Labels:
- California,
2015,
Recid 00%-01%,
Recidivism CA
WOW, what an amazing difference from their 2010 figures.
It is true a picture is worth a thousand words. I had to create a new category in blog, lowest of all.
..Source..
California release new recidivism numbers
New recidivism figures: 2010 Adult Institutions Outcome Evaluation Report ", but they are not easy to decipher!
Normally we would just look at a chart and know what the recidivism numbers are, however, California has revised their record-keeping system and it requires that we understand certain words and phrases, and know how to interpret the charts when viewing them.
The important terms are: Parole Violation (LAW); Parole Violation (TECHNICAL); Registered Sex Offender; Re-Release; and Term, the definitions are all on this page.
Next, the graphic on the right here is very helpful to understanding a few of the terms: Since their new system is based on "Return to Prison" numbers, that means, numbers include "Parole Violations (Technical) and for sex offenders the picture shows 86% for Technical violations. So when our concerns are "new crimes" we need to recognize where the report is overstated with technical violations.
The next item, new in their new system, is, if someone is incarcerated for "Failure to Register" they consider that a "new sex offense." See note 11 on the very bottom of this page. Accordingly, in the picture it shows 5% for new sex crimes (recidivism), that number is overstated by something, unfortunately we have no way of knowing how much.
Throughout the report they speak of "Flagged Sex Offenders" and "Nonflagged Felons" where "Flagged" means the folks required to register as a sex offender. Unless I've missed it, I haven't see a Technical Violation figure for "Nonflagged Felons."
Next to confuse folks is "Re-Release," say someone is convicted of a sex offense and is paroled, then -while on parole- gets convicted of a nonsex offense and is returned to prison. When they are again paroled (Still serving a sentence for the sex crime) they are put into the Re-Release numbers. Looking at the picture we see some sex offenders, when released (8.9%), go on to commit other types of offenses; they will be re-released at some point. A review of Table-10 makes this easier to see. Also note how they break down sex offenses into six types of offenses, and watch the "Other Sex" category because it includes "Failure to Register" crimes, which truthfully are not sex offenses.
The best chart which seems to get around all their confusion is found at the very end of their report, shown below, that only covers registered sex offenders. One final point, the percentages shown below virtually mirror the Department of Justice study done in 1994, and suggest that public sex offender registries have little or no effect on recidivism. Millions of dollars could be saved, excepting that, politicians are afraid to lose their jobs if they admit error.
On a closing note, California claims to be broke, well if 86% of the imprisoned sex offenders are sent back to prison -because of technical parole violations (I'm assuming non sex offenders numbers are similar)-, that has got to cost California a pretty penny. Maybe the real study necessary is about "Technical Violations." Are those folks really violating bad enough to warrant going back to prison, or have they just ticked someone off, or something inbetween? That should be the next study.
For now, have a great day and a better tomorrow.
eAdvocate
The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) Recidivism Studies
June 2008:The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) has conducted two sex offender recidivism studies that are very interesting. They were published on June of 2008:
Study 1) A 5-year study of 4,204 sex offender parolees, who were released in 2002 and followed until the end of 2007. Of the 4,204 parolees released 135 were returned to prison with a new sex offense conviction, a 3.21% recidivism rate. As to non sex offenses, 197 were returned to prison for a 4.69% non sex offense recidivism rate.
Study 2) A 10-year study of 3,577 sex offender parolees, who were released in 1997 and followed until the end of 2007. Of the 3,577 parolees released 121 were returned to prison with a new sex offense conviction, a 3.38% recidivism rate. As to non sex offenses, 137 were returned to prison for a 3.83% non sex offense recidivism rate.
In both studies the majority of the recidivism occurred in the first year ( 86 of 135 for 64% -v- 79 of 121 for 65% respectively). Again in both studies the majority of non sex offense convictions occurred in the first year ( 114 of 197 for 58% -v- 89 of 137 for 65% respectively). Technical violations of parole, although 47.05% and 49.06% respectively, were far less than other parolees who showed 60-70%.
The two studies virtually validated each other on a few points, remembering, each study had different parolees.
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