Construction and Validation of SRA-FV Need Assessment

December 2013:

Abstract:
This article describes the construction and testing of a newly designed instrument to assess psychological factors associated with increased rates of sexual recidivism. The new instrument (Structured Risk Assessment–Forensic Version or SRA-FV) was based on previous research using the SRA framework.

This article describes the results of testing SRA-FV with a large sample (N = 566) of sexual offenders being evaluated for an early civil commitment program. SRA-FV was found to significantly predict sexual recidivism for both child molesters and rapists and to have incremental predictive value relative to two widely used static actuarial instruments (Static-99R; Risk Matrix 2000/S). ..Source.. by David Thornton -and- Raymond A. Knight

Static-99 “norms du jour” get yet another makeover

11-17-2013 National:

It would be humorous if the real-world consequences were not so grave.

Every year, at a jam-packed session of the annual conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (ATSA), the developers of the Static-99 family of actuarial risk assessment tools roll out yet a new methodology to replace the old.

This year, they announced that they are scrapping two of three sets of "non-routine" comparison norms that they introduced at an ATSA conference just four years ago. Stay tuned, they told their rapt audience, for further instructions on how to choose between the two remaining sets of norms.

To many, this might sound dry and technical. But in the courtroom trenches, sexually violent predator cases often hinge on an evaluator's choice of a comparison group. Should the offender be compared with the full population of convicted sex offenders? Or a subset labeled "high risk/needs" that offended at a rate more than 3.5 times higher than the more representative group (21 percent versus 6 percent after five years)?

To illustrate, whereas only about 3 percent (4 out of 139) of the men over 70 in the combined Static-99R samples reoffended, invoking the high-risk norms would cause a septuagenarian's risk to skyrocket by 400 percent. It's not hard to see why such an inflated estimate might increase the odds of a judge or jury finding a former offender to be dangerous, and recommending indefinite detention.

SVP risk tools show 'disappointing' reliability in real-world use

6-4-2012 National:

Rater agreement on three instruments commonly used to assess sex offenders' risk of recidivism is much lower in practice than reported in the tools' manuals, according to a new study out of Florida.

Faring most poorly was the Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R). Correlations of scores between two evaluators hired by the same agency were in the low range. On average, psychologists differed by five points on the instrument, which has a score range of of zero to 40. In one case, two evaluators were apart by a whopping 24 points!

Agreement among evaluators was only moderate on the Static-99 and the MnSOST-R, two actuarial risk assessment instruments for which scoring is relatively more straightforward.

The study, published in the respected journal Psychological Assessment, was a collaboration between scholars from the Department of Mental Health Law and Policy at the University of South Florida and researchers with the Florida Department of Children and Families. It utilized archived records culled from the almost 35,000 individuals screened for possible Sexually Violent Predators (SVP) civil commitment in Florida between 1999 and 2009. The researchers located 315 cases in which the same individual was evaluated by separate clinicians who each administered both the PCL-R and at least one of the two actuarial measures within a short enough time frame to enable direct scoring comparisons.

It would be a mistake to lean too heavily on the results of a single isolated study. But the present study adds to a burgeoning body from several groups of independent researchers, all pointing to troubling problems with the accuracy of instruments designed to forecast risk of recidivism among sex offenders.

Related study: Psychopathy and sexual deviance not predictive

Collectively, the research has been especially critical of the ability of the highly prejudicial construct of psychopathy to add meaningfully to risk prediction in this high-stakes arena. Indeed, just this week another study has come out indicating that neither psychopathy scores nor sexual deviance measures improve on the accuracy provided by an actuarial instrument alone.

An especially interesting finding of that Canadian study is that reoffense rates were still below 12 percent over a 6-year followup period for even the most high-risk offenders -- those with high risk ratings on the Static-99R plus high levels of psychopathy and sexual deviance (as measured by phallometric testing). This makes it inappropriate to inflate risk estimates over and above those derived from Static-99R scores alone, the authors caution.

For the remainder of this article: by Karen Franklin, In the News

A Model of Static and Dynamic Sex Offender Risk Assessment

October 2011:

Abstract:
The purpose of the present study was to test models of combining static and dynamic risk measures that might predict sexual recidivism among adult male sex offenders better than any one type of measure alone. Study participants were 759 adult male sex offenders under correctional supervision in Vermont who were enrolled in community sex offender treatment between 2001 and 2007.

These offenders were assessed once using static measures (Static-99R, Static-2002R and VASOR) based on participants’ history at the date of placement in the community. A 22-item dynamic risk measure (SOTNPS) was used multiple times to assess participants, shortly after their entry into community treatment and approximately every six months thereafter. Analyses of SOTNPS scores resulted in the development of a new 16-item dynamic risk measure, the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS).

At fixed one- and three-year follow-up periods from participants’ initial, second, and third dynamic risk assessments, the SOTIPS and Static-99R, the static risk measure selected for further analysis in the present study, each independently showed moderate ability to rank order risk for sexual, violent, and any criminal recidivism and return to prison.

A logistic regression model that combined SOTIPS and Static-99R consistently predicted recidivism and outperformed either instrument alone when both instruments had similar predictive power. Participants who demonstrated treatment progress, as reflected by reductions in SOTIPS scores, showed lower rates of recidivism than those who did not. ..For the remainder of this research: by Robert J. McGrath, Michael P. Lasher, and Georgia F. Cumming, Vermont Department of Corrections (Grant Award Number: 2008-DD-BX-0013 National Institute of Justice)

---

...

SVP industry sneak peek: Problems in Actuaryland (Static-99)

10-5-2009 National:

From In the News:

You psychologists and attorneys working in the trenches of Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) litigation will be interested in the controversy over the Static-99 and its progeny, the Static-2002, that erupted at the annual conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (ATSA) in Dallas.

By way of background, the Static-99 is -- as its website advertises -- "the most widely used sex offender risk assessment instrument in the world, and is extensively used in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and many European nations." Government evaluators rely on it in certifying individuals as dangerous enough to merit civil commitment on the basis of possible future offending. Some states, including California, New York, and Texas, mandate its use in certain forensic evaluations of sex offenders. ..Click on link above.. by Karen Franklin, Ph,D

Static-99/Static-99R Website, Manuals and Forms

Latest Info:

The Static-99 is a ten item actuarial assessment instrument created by R. Karl Hanson, Ph.D. and David Thornton, Ph.D. for use with adult male sexual offenders who are at least 18 year of age at time of release to the community. It is the most widely used sex offender risk assessment instrument in the world, and is extensively used in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and many European nations.

This site is dedicated to the community of Static-99 users, and governed by an Advisory Board whose members approve and submit content, and rotate responsibility for answering Static-99 coding questions. Our intent is to provide useful information in a timely manner, and to promote best practices in sexual offender assessment among professionals who routinely use the instrument.

Coding questions may be submitted to Dr. Karl Williams; please consult the coding manual and FAQs prior to submission. Routine questions will be answered by the Site Manager, who has the full confidence of the Static-99 developers. Complex questions will be referred by the Site Manager to the Advisory Board for discussion and a response will be forwarded to the requestor as quickly as possible (in most cases within 5 business days).
Veuillez envoyer les questions en français à Dr. Claire Ducro. ..Source..