We now have added "Informational Posts" which are tidbits of information that may come in handy at some point.
Showing posts with label Statistics - Outdated Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistics - Outdated Research. Show all posts

Moving From Crisis To Solution: Is It Time For CACs To Change The Message?

National:

For many years, child sexual abuse professionals including those within Child Advocacy Centers have held to a similar mantra – one in four girls and one in seven boys are victims of sexual abuse or assault before the age of 18. These alarming statistics have been a rallying point for communicating the prevalence of child sexual abuse in the United States.While these statistics were absolutely true many years ago, we must ask ourselves two primary questions -- Are they still accurate? If not, what should we do?

Is it time for us to consider whether we should update this message to reflect the positive impact we have made?

The repeated child abuse statistic of “one in four girls and one in seven boys” proved to be very effective in bringing attention to the crisis of child sexual abuse. No one could hear those numbers and not be shocked by the crisis. The resulting sense of urgency demanded attention and proved to be a stimulant for allocating resources to address the issue.

Countless programs and initiatives related to sexual abuse were created and implemented all over the country and made significant progress in addressing the issue of child sexual abuse. Overall, those affected by abuse now receive much better care and the prevalence of child sexual abuse is inarguably lower.

Recidivism and Reoffense Rates of Adult Sex Offenders

National:

Introduction:

Scores of studies have examined the recidivism rates of adult sex offenders. Reported rates vary widely and have cited to be as low as 3% (Minnesota Department of Corrections, 2007) and as high as 88% (Langevin, Curnoe, Federoff, Bennett, Langevin, Peever, Pettica, and Sandhu, 2004).

Recidivism rates may differ from study to study because investigators sample from different offender populations, employ different methods of calculating recidivism, or employ different follow-up periods. It is also important to note that recidivism rates (the rates at which new offenses are detected) are not identical to reoffense rates (the rates at which new offenses actually occur) because both victims and offenders under-report the occurrence of sex crimes.

Recidivism Rates

I surveyed 48 studies which examined recidivism rates of adult sex offenders. The studies were conducted between 1980 and 2009. They included 37 individual studies and 11 meta-analyses (summary analyses of individual studies). I do not claim to have reviewed all existing studies of recidivism but I reviewed all that I found through 2007 (when the original version of this paper was posted) and I have included a number of the most quoted studies which have appeared since. I have endeavored to report the findings accurately. It is important to note, however, that this survey is not, in and of itself, a structured research study and it has not been subjected to peer review; it is simply my attempt to survey the literature as best as I could. ..Source.. by Stephen Brake, Ph.D. (His website)



Perpetrators Under-Report (Page-7 of above report)

It is also understandable that offenders under-report because they wish to avoid prosecution and don’t want to be shunned by society. Some may desire to keep offending. However, sometimes offenders eventually disclose in treatment or in anonymous surveys that they have committed large numbers of offenses before they were first caught.

One study reported that adult sex offenders who were known to have an average of two victims (or a median of one victim) at the time of their arrest subsequently reported having an average of 184 victims (or a median of 26 victims) after taking polygraph tests while in treatment (Ahlmeyer, et al., 2000 Read Appendix E HERE Many studies cited including Ahlmeyer 2000).

Another study found that child molesters in treatment eventually report having committed an average of 88 crimes each (Underwood, Patch, Cappelletty, and Wolfe, 1999). [Other researchers have similarly reported in studies of adolescents that the number of sex offenses disclosed by offenders in treatment increased by a factor of three (Emerick and Dutton, 1993) or five (James, 1993) following polygraph testing.]

Abel and his colleagues reported that adult sex offenders who were guaranteed anonymity disclosed having committed an average of 533 sex offenses over a 12-year-period before being detected (Abel, Becker, Cunningham-Rathner, Mittelman, and Rouleau, 1988; Abel, Becker, Mittelman, Cunningham-Rathner, Rouleau, and Murphy, 1987 'Self-Reported Sex Crimes of Nonincarcerated Paraphiliacs'). These findings prompted the authors to conclude that “arrest records of paraphiliacs do not provide a reliable indication of the true scope of paraphilic acts”. In another study, it was found that rapists given assurances that their responses would remain anonymous reported having six times more victims that were indentified from official records and that each of the child molesters in the study reported having hundreds of previously unknown sexual contacts with children (Weinrott and Saylor, 1991). The authors concluded that there is an “iceberg of undocumented offenses beneath the tip of official records”. ...

Research that is “Outdated and Inadequate?”

I find it interesting that various State Attorneys General, after the report was issued, complain -on various grounds- that the report is inaccurate. Reality is that these same Attorneys General initially complained about registered sex offenders having MySpace accounts (MySpace finding, first 29,000 then 7,000 accounts and MySpace deleting them: Note RSOs all truthfully established those accounts legally - even today the MySpace TOA does not prohibit RSOs from having MySpace accounts) and the Attorneys General reviewed every single one of those accounts and finding no more than certain RSOs having violated parole by using the Internet, and not finding a single one of the RSOs enticing or soliciting any minor on MySpace. Now, after the fact, one Attorney General comes up with a series of Internet crimes resulting from chat rooms which was not their initial complaint. The latest claims of the Attorneys General are more than questionable because the Task Force did quote recent research not old and outdated research as claimed. eAdvocate

January 2009:

An Analysis of the Pennsylvania Child Predator Unit Arrests in Response to Attorney General Criticism of the Berkman Task Force Report

On January 14, 2008, the Berkman Internet Safety Technical Task Force issued its report, Enhancing Child Safety and Online Technologies. The Task Force, a group of 29 leading Internet businesses, non-profit organizations, academics, and technology companies engaged in a year-long investigation of tools and technologies to create a safer environment on the Internet for youth. The Task Force was created in February 2008 in accordance with the Joint Statement on Key Principles of Social Networking Safety announced in January 2008 by the Attorneys General Multi-State Working Group on Social Networking and MySpace. This Task Force was formed as a result of pressure by some of the state attorneys generals upon the social networking sites to implement age verification technologies to separate adults from minors, ostensibly to protect minors from sexual predators.

The Task Force report has been criticized by some of the state’s Attorneys General:

• In a press release, Connecticut Attorney General Blumenthal stated: “The report unfortunately downplays the threat of predators -- in relying on research that is outdated or inadequate.”1

• In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, North Carolina Attorney General Cooper stated: “We did not ask the task force to look at the bullying issues. We asked them to look at ways for us to fight child predators. I am concerned with some of the findings. I think it relied on outdated and inadequate research …”2

• In a press release about the Task Force report by the Pennsylvania Attorney General Corbett stated:3 "I believe this report is incredibly misleading ... "The threat is real," Corbett said. "In the last four years, my office has arrested 183 predators, all of whom have used the Internet for the purpose of contacting minors to engage in sexual activity." "Outdated statistics and academic projections are of little comfort to the minors who have been sexually victimized by online predators," Corbett said. "The mere fact that tens of thousands of registered sex offenders have been removed from MySpace should be sufficient to cause any parent concern."


Although the Task Force’s Research Advisory Board reviewed and summarized the latest online-safety research available, including research that was published in 2008, much of the data on online sexual predation in the published articles predates the rise in popularity of social networking sites. However, it should be noted that the findings of various studies by different researchers have been highly consistent throughout the last decade.

The research demonstrates that sexual predation cases typically involve teens who willingly meet with adult men knowing they will engage in sexual activities. Deception about age or sexual intention is rare. Sexual abuse by family members and acquaintances remains a far more significant concern. The young people who are at the greatest risk online, in all areas of risk, are those who are at greater risk in the real world. These young people have significant psychosocial concerns, intentionally engage in risk taking behavior, and have disrupted relations with parents or other care givers. Young people face greater risks from their peers in the form of sexual solicitation, sexual harassment and cyberbullying. The majority of young people are generally making safe and responsible choices online, effectively responding to the negative incidents that do occur, and are not distressed by these incidents.

This nation’s Attorneys General are the ones who have access to the most up-to-date arrest data on online sexual predation - data that is critical to understanding the extent of the problem, as well as other site and risk factors. They
did not provide any data to the Task Force that they created.

For the remainder of this report: by Nancy Willard, M.S., J.D., Center for Safe and Responsible Internet Use: Website: http://csrui.org Email: nwillard@csriu.org