Recidivism and Reoffense Rates of Adult Sex Offenders

National:

Introduction:

Scores of studies have examined the recidivism rates of adult sex offenders. Reported rates vary widely and have cited to be as low as 3% (Minnesota Department of Corrections, 2007) and as high as 88% (Langevin, Curnoe, Federoff, Bennett, Langevin, Peever, Pettica, and Sandhu, 2004).

Recidivism rates may differ from study to study because investigators sample from different offender populations, employ different methods of calculating recidivism, or employ different follow-up periods. It is also important to note that recidivism rates (the rates at which new offenses are detected) are not identical to reoffense rates (the rates at which new offenses actually occur) because both victims and offenders under-report the occurrence of sex crimes.

Recidivism Rates

I surveyed 48 studies which examined recidivism rates of adult sex offenders. The studies were conducted between 1980 and 2009. They included 37 individual studies and 11 meta-analyses (summary analyses of individual studies). I do not claim to have reviewed all existing studies of recidivism but I reviewed all that I found through 2007 (when the original version of this paper was posted) and I have included a number of the most quoted studies which have appeared since. I have endeavored to report the findings accurately. It is important to note, however, that this survey is not, in and of itself, a structured research study and it has not been subjected to peer review; it is simply my attempt to survey the literature as best as I could. ..Source.. by Stephen Brake, Ph.D. (His website)

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Perpetrators Under-Report (Page-7 of above report)

It is also understandable that offenders under-report because they wish to avoid prosecution and don’t want to be shunned by society. Some may desire to keep offending. However, sometimes offenders eventually disclose in treatment or in anonymous surveys that they have committed large numbers of offenses before they were first caught.

One study reported that adult sex offenders who were known to have an average of two victims (or a median of one victim) at the time of their arrest subsequently reported having an average of 184 victims (or a median of 26 victims) after taking polygraph tests while in treatment (Ahlmeyer, et al., 2000 Read Appendix E HERE Many studies cited including Ahlmeyer 2000).

Another study found that child molesters in treatment eventually report having committed an average of 88 crimes each (Underwood, Patch, Cappelletty, and Wolfe, 1999). [Other researchers have similarly reported in studies of adolescents that the number of sex offenses disclosed by offenders in treatment increased by a factor of three (Emerick and Dutton, 1993) or five (James, 1993) following polygraph testing.]

Abel and his colleagues reported that adult sex offenders who were guaranteed anonymity disclosed having committed an average of 533 sex offenses over a 12-year-period before being detected (Abel, Becker, Cunningham-Rathner, Mittelman, and Rouleau, 1988; Abel, Becker, Mittelman, Cunningham-Rathner, Rouleau, and Murphy, 1987 'Self-Reported Sex Crimes of Nonincarcerated Paraphiliacs'). These findings prompted the authors to conclude that “arrest records of paraphiliacs do not provide a reliable indication of the true scope of paraphilic acts”. In another study, it was found that rapists given assurances that their responses would remain anonymous reported having six times more victims that were indentified from official records and that each of the child molesters in the study reported having hundreds of previously unknown sexual contacts with children (Weinrott and Saylor, 1991). The authors concluded that there is an “iceberg of undocumented offenses beneath the tip of official records”. ...