Static-99 “norms du jour” get yet another makeover

11-17-2013 National:

It would be humorous if the real-world consequences were not so grave.

Every year, at a jam-packed session of the annual conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (ATSA), the developers of the Static-99 family of actuarial risk assessment tools roll out yet a new methodology to replace the old.

This year, they announced that they are scrapping two of three sets of "non-routine" comparison norms that they introduced at an ATSA conference just four years ago. Stay tuned, they told their rapt audience, for further instructions on how to choose between the two remaining sets of norms.

To many, this might sound dry and technical. But in the courtroom trenches, sexually violent predator cases often hinge on an evaluator's choice of a comparison group. Should the offender be compared with the full population of convicted sex offenders? Or a subset labeled "high risk/needs" that offended at a rate more than 3.5 times higher than the more representative group (21 percent versus 6 percent after five years)?

To illustrate, whereas only about 3 percent (4 out of 139) of the men over 70 in the combined Static-99R samples reoffended, invoking the high-risk norms would cause a septuagenarian's risk to skyrocket by 400 percent. It's not hard to see why such an inflated estimate might increase the odds of a judge or jury finding a former offender to be dangerous, and recommending indefinite detention.

Most civilly detained sex offenders would not reoffend, study finds

7-21-2013 National:

Other new research finds further flaws with actuarial methods in forensic practice

At least three out of every four men being indefinitely detained as Sexually Violent Predators in Minnesota would never commit another sex crime if they were released.

That’s the conclusion of a new study by the chief researcher for the Department of Corrections in Minnesota, the state with the highest per capita rate of preventive detention in the United States.

--Study examined 105 sex offenders civilly committed between 2004 and 2006.

--MnSOST-3 used to estimate effects of civil commitment on sex offense recidivism.

--Estimated four-year sexual recidivism rate was 9 percent for civil commits.

--Civil commitment reduced four-year sexual recidivism rate by 12 percent.

--Estimated lifetime sexual recidivism rate was 28 percent.

Using special statistical procedures and a new actuarial instrument called the MnSOST-3 that is better calibrated to current recidivism rates, Grant Duwe estimated that the recidivism rate for civilly committed sex offenders -- if released -- would be between about 5 and 16 percent over four years, and about 18 percent over their lifetimes. Only two of the 600 men detained since Minnesota's law was enacted have been released, making hollow the law's promise of rehabilitation after treatment.

Duwe -- a criminologist and author of a book on the history of mass murder in the United States -- downplays the troubling Constitutional implications of this finding, focusing instead on the SVP law’s exorbitant costs and weak public safety benefits. He notes that "Three Strikes" laws, enacted in some U.S. states during the same time period as SVP laws based on a similar theory of selective incapacitation of the worst of the worst, have also not had a significant impact on crime rates.

The problem for the field of forensic psychology is that forensic risk assessment procedures have astronomical rates of false positives, or over-predictions of danger, and it is difficult to determine which small proportion of those predicted to reoffend would actually do so.

Minnesota has taken the lead in civilly detaining men with sex crime convictions, despite the state's only middling crime rates. Unlike in most U.S. states with SVP laws, sex offenders referred for possible detention are not entitled to a jury trial and, once detained, do not have a right to periodic reviews. Detention also varies greatly by county, so geographic locale can make the difference between a lifetime behind bars and a chance to move on with life after prison.

Ironically, as noted by other researchers, by the time an offender has done enough bad deeds to be flagged for civil commitment, his offending trajectory is often on the decline. Like other criminals, sex offenders tend to age out of criminality by their 40s, making endless incarceration both pointless and wasteful.

The study, To what extent does civil commitment reduce sexual recidivism? Estimating the selective incapacitation effects in Minnesota, is forthcoming from the Journal of Criminal Justice. ..Source.. by Karen Franklin, In the News

Judge bars Static-99R risk tool from SVP trial

12-14-2012 National:

Developers staunchly refused requests to turn over data

For several years now, the developers of the most widely used sex offender risk assessment tool in the world have refused to share their data with independent researchers and statisticians seeking to cross-check the  instrument's methodology.

Now, a Wisconsin judge has ordered the influential Static-99R instrument excluded from a sexually violent predator (SVP) trial, on the grounds that failure to release the data violates a respondent's legal right to due process.

The ruling may be the first time that the Static-99R has been excluded altogether from court. At least one prior court, in New Hampshire, barred an experimental method that is currently popular among government evaluators, in which Static-99R risk estimates are artificially inflated by comparing sex offenders to a specially selected "high-risk" sub-group, a procedure that has not been empirically validated in any published research. 

In the Wisconsin case, the state is seeking to civilly commit Homer Perren Jr. as a sexually dangerous predator. Perren just completed a 10-year prison term for an attempted sexual assault on a child age 16 or under. ...continued... by Karen Franklin, In the News

APA rejects "hebephilia," last standing of three novel sexual disorders

12-3-2012 National:

To hear government experts on the witness stand in civil detention trials in recent months, the novel diagnosis of "hebephilia" was a fait accompli, just awaiting its formal acceptance into the upcoming fifth edition of the influential Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM).

They were flat-out wrong.

In a stunning blow to psychology's burgeoning sex offender processing industry, the Board of Trustees of the American Psychiatric Association rejected the proposed diagnosis outright, not even relegating it to an appendix as meriting further study, its proponents' fall-back position.

The rejection follows the failure of two other sexual disorders proposed by the DSM-5's paraphilias subworkgroup. These were paraphilic coercive disorder (or a proclivity toward rape) and hypersexuality, an inherently hard-to-define construct that introduced the committee members' value judgments as to how much sex is within acceptable limits.

After abandoning those two disorders, the subworkgroup clung tenaciously to a whittled-down version of its proposed expansion of pedophilia to cover sexual attraction to early pubescent youngsters (generally in the age range of 11-14), ignoring widespread opposition from both within and outside of ....continued... by Karen Franklin, In the News

SVP risk tools show 'disappointing' reliability in real-world use

6-4-2012 National:

Rater agreement on three instruments commonly used to assess sex offenders' risk of recidivism is much lower in practice than reported in the tools' manuals, according to a new study out of Florida.

Faring most poorly was the Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R). Correlations of scores between two evaluators hired by the same agency were in the low range. On average, psychologists differed by five points on the instrument, which has a score range of of zero to 40. In one case, two evaluators were apart by a whopping 24 points!

Agreement among evaluators was only moderate on the Static-99 and the MnSOST-R, two actuarial risk assessment instruments for which scoring is relatively more straightforward.

The study, published in the respected journal Psychological Assessment, was a collaboration between scholars from the Department of Mental Health Law and Policy at the University of South Florida and researchers with the Florida Department of Children and Families. It utilized archived records culled from the almost 35,000 individuals screened for possible Sexually Violent Predators (SVP) civil commitment in Florida between 1999 and 2009. The researchers located 315 cases in which the same individual was evaluated by separate clinicians who each administered both the PCL-R and at least one of the two actuarial measures within a short enough time frame to enable direct scoring comparisons.

It would be a mistake to lean too heavily on the results of a single isolated study. But the present study adds to a burgeoning body from several groups of independent researchers, all pointing to troubling problems with the accuracy of instruments designed to forecast risk of recidivism among sex offenders.

Related study: Psychopathy and sexual deviance not predictive

Collectively, the research has been especially critical of the ability of the highly prejudicial construct of psychopathy to add meaningfully to risk prediction in this high-stakes arena. Indeed, just this week another study has come out indicating that neither psychopathy scores nor sexual deviance measures improve on the accuracy provided by an actuarial instrument alone.

An especially interesting finding of that Canadian study is that reoffense rates were still below 12 percent over a 6-year followup period for even the most high-risk offenders -- those with high risk ratings on the Static-99R plus high levels of psychopathy and sexual deviance (as measured by phallometric testing). This makes it inappropriate to inflate risk estimates over and above those derived from Static-99R scores alone, the authors caution.

For the remainder of this article: by Karen Franklin, In the News

SVP industry sneak peek: Problems in Actuaryland (Static-99)

10-5-2009 National:

From In the News:

You psychologists and attorneys working in the trenches of Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) litigation will be interested in the controversy over the Static-99 and its progeny, the Static-2002, that erupted at the annual conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (ATSA) in Dallas.

By way of background, the Static-99 is -- as its website advertises -- "the most widely used sex offender risk assessment instrument in the world, and is extensively used in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and many European nations." Government evaluators rely on it in certifying individuals as dangerous enough to merit civil commitment on the basis of possible future offending. Some states, including California, New York, and Texas, mandate its use in certain forensic evaluations of sex offenders. ..Click on link above.. by Karen Franklin, Ph,D