ARE SEX OFFENDERS DANGEROUS?*

November 2003:

Research Summary:
Current legislation mandating DNA collection, civil commitment, registration, and community notification of sex offenders is predicated on the assumption that sex offenders are simply more dangerous than other types of offenders in that they inevitably re-offend.

Moreover, many states are moving to expand sex offender legislation to include non-sexual offenders on the assumption that some offense types, such as burglary and robbery, serve as “gateway” offenses to sex crimes.

The purpose of this research is to highlight two of the common perceptions underlying sex offender laws, and the extension thereof, and examine them in light of current empirical evidence.

We employ analysis of variance techniques on Illinois arrest data from 1990 to 1997 to examine the degree to which sex offenders have higher proportions of repeat offending than other criminal categories and if some offense types serve as “gateway” or predicate offenses to sex crimes.

Policy Implications:
Our results suggest that the extension of sex offender laws to non-sexual offenders will likely have little effect on sexual victimization rates. More importantly, our results illustrate that policies can be founded on misconceptions, and these misconceptions not only have financial consequences, but also can affect the likelihood that the policies enacted will achieve their goals.

If nothing else, this research suggests that policy makers need to become better informed on the issues they subject to far-reaching and costly legislation. ..Source.. by LISA L. SAMPLE and TIMOTHY M. BRAY

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Who commits more sex offenses in the community,
Sex Offenders -or- Non Sex offender?

Unfortunately we do not have specific figures, the study only mentions percentages, but there is another way to show -using charts from the study- that Non Sex Offenders commit more sex offenses than do sex offenders, even when sex offenders recidivate. We are going to compare the following two charts:

Fig-2 above is rearrested for the same offense, and, Fig-3 below shows rearrested for a sex offense. Now in Fig-3 it looks like sex offenders are worse than any of the others, but, the reality is, they ARE NOT!

Remember, Fig below is rearrested for sex offenses ONLY. While it is hard to see exact percentages look only at the 5-year column. To see how many non sex offenders were rearrested for sex offenses you need to SUM the 5-year columns of all crime types except sex offenders, approximately I get 14 (.9 + 2.4 + 1.9 + 2.3 + 2.1 + .9 + 1.0 + 1.0 + 1.5 = 14). Logically this shows non sex offenders are far more dangerous -in the community- than are sex offenders.. (14-v-6)

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See also: HERE and Full Paper

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