We now have added "Informational Posts" which are tidbits of information that may come in handy at some point.

Long-Term Follow-Up of Child Molesters: Risk Predictors and Treatment Outcome

1992-02 NCJ 155150:

The present study examined the long term recidivism rates of 197 child molesters released from prison between 1958 and 1974. Overall 42 percent of the sample were reconvicted for sexual and/or violent crimes, with 10 percent of the total sample being reconvicted between 10 and 31 years after being released. Incest offenders were reconvicted at a slower rate than homosexual pedophiles; with heterosexual pedophiles showing a rate intermediate between these two groups.

Other factors associated with increased recidivism were never being married and prior sex offenses. Although mental health and personality test scores improved treatment, neither the pretreatment nor the posttreatment scores were associated with recidivism. The recidivism rate for the treated child molesters was similar to the recidivism rate for comparison groups of untreated child molesters. Source: Since this paper is no longer available on the Internet, this Abstract is taken from a paper copy of the study. See NCJRS Desc. by R K Hanson ; R A Steffy ; R Gauthier

Page-8 of study: Recidivism measures:
Sexual offense recidivism (not general criminal recidivism) was selected as the outcome variable since the intent of the treatment program was to reduce sexual reoffending. The criteria for sexual offense recidivism was reconviction for a sexual and/or violent offense as indicated by R.C.M.P. records.

FLAW-1: So the study, in order to arrive at 42%, had to include "other violent crimes" and DECLARED them sex offenses.

FLAW-2: Target subjects were not released -all at one time- they were released at different times over a 16-year period (1958-1974).

31-years is arrived at by subtracting the first release date from 1992 when they did the study. The entire group was not followed for 31 years, each offender that recidivated did so at different periods over the 31 years, some early on (5.6% is mentioned).

It may have been one offender recidivating at 31 years. A study like this is very misleading to any reasonable person. The title "Long Term Follow-Up" does not mean "Followed for a long term (31 years)" very tricky.

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