We now have added "Informational Posts" which are tidbits of information that may come in handy at some point.

Bureau of Justice - Recidivism

1994 through 1997:

Below are the figures quoted by the Department of Justice (DOJ) on their "Recidivism Page," however, there are considerable points about those figures which the DOJ has left out. Accordingly, I will point out those facts below as (Notes by eAdvocate).

The 9,691 sex offenders were released from State prisons in these 15 States: Arizona, Maryland, North Carolina, California, Michigan, Ohio, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Florida, New Jersey, Texas, Illinois, New York, and Virginia.

The DOJ is quoting from is: Recidivism of SexOffenders Released from Prison in 1994 (NCJ 198281) (PDF), published November 2003, By Patrick A. Langan, Ph.D., Erica L. Schmitt, and Matthew R. Durose, Statisticians, Bureau of Justice Statistics

DOJ recidivism page Shows:

Recidivism: (All types of crimes)

Of the 272,111 persons released from prisons in 15 States in 1994 (all types of offenders), an estimated 67.5% were rearrested for a felony or serious misdemeanor within 3 years, 46.9% were reconvicted, and 25.4% resentenced to prison for a new crime.

The 272,111 offenders discharged in 1994 accounted for nearly 4,877,000 arrest charges over their recorded careers.

Within 3 years of release, 2.5% of released rapists were rearrested for another rape, and 1.2% of those who had served time for homicide were arrested for a new homicide.

Sex offenders were less likely than non-sex offenders to be rearrested for any offense –– 43 percent of sex offenders versus 68 percent of non-sex offenders.

Sex offenders were about four times more likely than non-sex offenders to be arrested for another sex crime after their discharge from prison –– 5.3 percent of sex offenders versus 1.3 percent of non-sex offenders.
(Note, that following release 1.3% of non-sex offenders committed a sex offense [not something they had done before].

Now, sometimes looking at percentages is misleading, so, translating these percentages to real numbers: 5.3% is 517 sex offenders -and- 1.3% is 3,328 non-sex offenders. Looking close shows us that non-sex offenders committed 3,328 sex crimes while sex offenders committed 517 sex crimes.

That means, former non-sex offenders are more dangerous to the community and committed 6 sex crimes to every one committed by a former sex offender. You might want to review that a few times to get over the shock, lawmakers ignore this fact

Sex offenders

On a given day in 1994 there were approximately 234,000 offenders convicted of rape or sexual assault under the care, custody, or control of corrections agencies; nearly 60% of these sex offenders are under conditional supervision in the community.

The median age of the victims of imprisoned sexual assaulters was less than 13 years old; the median age of rape victims was about 22 years.

An estimated 24% of those serving time for rape and 19% of those serving time for sexual assault had been on probation or parole (not necessarily for a previous sex crime) at the time of the offense for which they were in State prison in 1991.

Of the 9,691 male sex offenders released from prisons in 15 States in 1994, 5.3% were rearrested for a new sex crime within 3 years of release. (5.3% over 3 years, however, that equates to a annual rate of 1.76%. Further, of the 5.3% of those arrested, 3.5% were actually convicted.)

Of released sex offenders who allegedly committed another sex crime, 40% perpetrated the new offense within a year or less from their prison discharge. ( This is a common fact of all types of crime. The first year following release is the hardest in readjusting to society, and those having troubles readjusting often resort to their old tactics: recidivism.)

Child victimizers

Approximately 4,300 child molesters were released from prisons in 15 States in 1994. An estimated 3.3% of these 4,300 were rearrested for another sex crime against a child within 3 years of release from prison. ( Again, percentages can be misleading. [ 4,300 was actually 4,295 X 3.3% = 141 new sex crimes]. Now, missing is, some non-sex offenders released committed sex crimes against a child 0.4% [262,420 X .4% = 1,042 new sex crimes]. Again, non-sex offenders are more dangerous to the community and lawmakers ignore this fact.)

Among child molesters released from prison in 1994, 60% had been in prison for molesting a child 13 years old or younger.

Offenders who had victimized a child were on average 5 years older than the violent offenders who had committed their crimes against adults. Nearly 25% of child victimizers were age 40 or older, but about 10% of the inmates with adult victims fell in that age range.

eAdvocate Note: Here are a few charts created from that study which show the facts clearly. These charts, and more, were on my old Yahoo website, but Yahoo closed those FREE sites. When they did "oocities" preserved the information, links to the charts there are below:

A) Recidivism Rates: All released sex offenders -vs- non-sex offenders

B) Recidivism Rates: Showing offenders who re-offended against a child!

C) Department of Justice: Victim/Offender Relationship Statistics

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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

One thing I haven't heard anyone talk about yet, in regards to RSO recidivism is what I call the "self fulfilling prophecy" aspect of the laws. Yes, right now the rearrest rates for RSO’s is among the lowest but in the future it won't be so, in fact I fully expect them to go up, possibly as high, or surpass, other classes of crimes.
Why? simple, when the statistics are used by those who push these laws they will invariably also include arrests for violations of the registration laws themselves. For example, I got out of prison in’97 and was told I had to register,blah,blah. When I went to register the sheriff (in Ohio) called me an unpleasant and inaccurate name...well one thing led to another and I was temporarily arrested and charged (later dropped because he really overstepped his authority). Then in 2006 I was arrested on a technicality under the registration law ( I didn’t sign a form...seriously). Again, another arrest. Let me be clear here, prior to, and since 1995, when I was arrested for my initial crime, I have not been arrested or broke any laws except arising out of the %$& registry. But, statistically I have been arrested 3 times. For a single crime. 3 times.
So, using the inflated “screw-the-facts” logic the powers-that-be use, I am a habitual offender. Even though a single event was the root cause, they can get in front of a crowd of people, show my pictures and say, accurately, “ Since his release in 1997, this man has been arrested two more times.” Of course this doesn’t tell the facts that these ignorant registration laws are the reason I’ve been arrested, no, it’s easier to APPEAR tough on crime by creating laws that create the statistics, it’s the best example of the “wagon before the horse” I can find. The laws are based on bad science but their existence will slowly bring the numbers up.
I know I’m not alone in “slowly bringing the numbers up”, a simple google search will bury you in page after page of people arrested for not registering or not living t such and such address or any number of violations we face on a daily basis that general public doesn’t.
It’s a self fulfilling prophecy.... and I am reluctantly doing my part.... just trying to live a normal life.