MN- Sex Offender Recidivism in Minnesota

April 2007

Executive Summary:
As interest and concern over sex offenders has increased, so have efforts to control the extent to which they reoffend. As a result, the State of Minnesota has enforced civil commitment statutes, created a sex offender registry, implemented community notification, enhanced the penalties for sex offenders, and increased both the intensity and length of post-release supervision. In examining recidivism among 3,166 sex offenders released from a Minnesota Correctional Facility (MCF) between 1990 and 2002, this report addresses the following question: What are the factors associated with sex offender recidivism?

Compared to other offenders, sex offenders are less likely to recidivate in general, but are still more likely to reoffend with a sex crime. Previous research has shown that deviant sexual interests, antisocial orientation, prior non-contact offenses, intimacy deficits, an emotional identification with children, and a history of victimizing strangers are significant predictors of repeat sexual offending. The predictors of non-sexual reoffending are largely different, however, in that only two of these factors—antisocial orientation and intimacy deficits—are associated with non-sex offense recidivism. Although existing research has generally shown that treatment lowers the risk of sexual recidivism, it has not adequately examined whether supervision length, supervision intensity, and supervised release revocations have an effect on reoffending.

This study analyzed the impact of treatment and post-release supervision by studying 3,166 sex offenders released from a MCF between 1990 and 2002. The average follow-up period was 8.4 years, with a minimum of three and a maximum of 16. Measured three different ways (rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration for a new crime) and distinguished by the type of reoffense (sex offense, non-sex offense, any offense), recidivism was analyzed by using a Cox proportional hazards model, a multivariate statistical technique. Because the baseline rate for sexual recidivism is relatively low, all three offense levels (misdemeanor, gross misdemeanor, and felony) were included in this study in order to obtain the most sensitive measure of reoffending. Due to the relatively long follow-up period used as well as the inclusion of all three offense levels, the recidivism findings presented here are not directly comparable to the general recidivism rates reported by the Department of Corrections, which are based on felony-level offenses over a three-year follow-up period.


Results

Sex Offense Recidivism

• After three years, seven percent of the 3,166 offenders had been rearrested for a sex offense, six percent reconvicted, and three percent reincarcerated.

• By the end of the follow-up period (an average of 8.4 years for all 3,166 offenders), 12 percent had been rearrested for a sex offense, 10 percent reconvicted, and seven percent reincarcerated.

• Prior sex crimes, stranger victims, male child victims (i.e. male victims under the age of 13), failure in prison-based sex offender treatment, and a metro-area county of commitment each significantly increased the risk of timing to a sex reoffense.1

• Intensive supervised release (ISR), supervised release, supervised release revocations, and successful participation/completion of sex offender treatment each significantly reduced the risk of timing to a sex reoffense.

Non-Sex Offense Recidivism

• After three years, 24 percent of the offenders had been rearrested for a non-sex offense, 19 percent reconvicted, and nine percent reincarcerated.

• At the end of the follow-up period, 42 percent had been rearrested for a non-sex offense, 39 percent reconvicted, and 19 percent reincarcerated.

• The predictors of non-sexual reoffending were very different from those for sexual recidivism. ..more.. by Minnesota Dep't of Corrections