Residential proximity to schools and daycare centers: Influence on sex offense recidivism

December 2008:

Residential proximity to schools and daycare centers: Influence on sex offense recidivism, An empirical analysis

Study Background and Purpose
Residential restrictions for sex offenders have become increasingly popular despite a lack of empirical data demonstrating that offenders’ proximity to schools or daycare centers contributes to recidivism. Using a matched sample of recidivists and non-recidivists from Florida (n = 330), we investigated whether sex offenders who lived closer to schools or daycare centers were more likely to reoffend sexually than those who lived farther away.


Methodology
Of the sex offenders listed on Florida’s sex offender registry in 2004, 165 were re-arrested for a new sex crime in 2004-2006. A group of 165 non-recidivists, matched to the recidivists on relevant risk factors (prior convictions, age, marital status, predator status), was also identified. The offenders’ addresses were mapped using GIS software, as were the locations of all schools and daycare centers. Mapping was conducted using individual property boundaries to the extent available. The offenders lived in counties throughout the state of Florida. For each offender the straight-line shortest distance to the nearest daycare center and school were determined. Buffers of 1,000 and 2,500 feet around each offender’s residence were also determined to count the number of daycare centers and schools within these buffers.

Results
No significant differences were found in the distances that recidivists and non-recidivists lived from schools and daycare centers. We compared the proportions of recidivists and nonrecidivists who lived within common buffer zones. Offenders who lived within 1,000, 1,500, or 2,500 feet of schools or daycare centers were no more likely to reoffend sexually than those who lived farther away. There was a virtually non-existent correlation between reoffending and proximity to schools (r = .004; p = .940) or daycares (r = - .043; p = .433). When the distances to schools and daycares were entered along with risk factors into a logistic regression model, neither proximity measure was a significant predictor of recidivism.


Conclusions
Proximity to schools and daycares, with other risk factors being comparable, explains virtually none of the variation in sexual recidivism. Sex offenders who lived within closer proximity to schools and daycare centers did not reoffend more frequently than those who lived farther away. These data do not justify the widespread enactment of residential restrictions for sexual offenders. The time that police and probation officers spend addressing housing issues is likely to divert law enforcement resources away from behaviors that truly threaten our communities in order to attend to a problem that simply does not exist. Residence restrictions greatly diminish housing options for sex offenders, resulting in increased homelessness, transience, and instability, undermining the very purpose of registries and exacerbating known risk factors for criminal recidivism. Residence restrictions decisions should be made on an individualized risk management basis and not legislated.

For the remainder of this paper: by Jill Levenson, Ph.D.*, -and- Paul Zandbergen, Ph.D., -and- Timothy Hart, Ph.D.

Levenson, J. S., & Zandbergen, P. & Hart, T (2009) An empirical analysis: Residential proximity to schools and daycare centers: Influence on sex offense recidivism..

eAdvocate note: Reviewing this study was interesting but there was one chart which caught my eye, it follows: